From Remaking Eden to CRISPR: Which Predictions Came True?

In a previous post we looked at some of the major books discussing human genetic engineering. One of the most interesting early contributions was Remaking Eden (1997) by Lee M. Silver. Written several years before the completion of the Human Genome Project, the book attempted to predict how biotechnology might reshape human reproduction and society.

Nearly three decades later, we now live in a world where powerful gene-editing tools such as CRISPR gene editing exist. This raises a natural question: How well did Silver’s predictions hold up?

Prediction 1: Reproductive Genetics Would Expand Rapidly

Silver predicted that reproductive technologies would increasingly merge with genetics, creating what he called “reprogenetics.”

In this area, he was remarkably prescient.

Today, techniques such as:

  • In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)

  • Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD)

already allow embryos to be screened for certain genetic diseases before implantation.

Parents undergoing IVF can sometimes choose embryos that do not carry mutations associated with disorders such as Cystic Fibrosis or Tay-Sachs Disease. In this sense, the genetic selection of embryos is no longer science fiction—it is routine medical practice in many countries.

However, these technologies are currently used primarily for disease prevention, not for selecting desirable traits such as intelligence or athletic ability.

Prediction 2: Genetic Enhancement Would Be Driven by Parents, Not Governments

Silver argued that in liberal societies, genetic enhancement would not arise from authoritarian eugenics programs. Instead, it would emerge gradually from individual parental choices.

This prediction remains plausible but has not yet fully materialized.

So far, most countries prohibit editing the genes of embryos intended for pregnancy. After a controversial experiment by He Jiankui in 2018—who created the first gene-edited babies—scientists and governments around the world condemned the work.

The incident led to renewed calls for international oversight from organizations such as the World Health Organization.

In other words, social and regulatory barriers have slowed the transition from genetic selection to genetic modification.

Prediction 3: Society Might Divide into “GenRich” and “Naturals”

Perhaps the most famous idea in Remaking Eden is the possibility that genetic enhancement could eventually create a social divide between:

  • “GenRich” – genetically enhanced humans

  • “Naturals” – unmodified humans.

So far, this scenario has not occurred.

However, concerns about inequality remain relevant. Advanced medical technologies often appear first in wealthy countries and among affluent populations. If enhancement technologies eventually become safe and effective, unequal access could indeed produce new forms of biological inequality.

Many contemporary commentators—including Yuval Noah Harari—have echoed similar concerns about the potential emergence of biologically enhanced elites.

Prediction 4: Gene Editing Would Eventually Become Technically Feasible

When Remaking Eden was published, editing human DNA was extremely difficult. That changed dramatically with the discovery of CRISPR.

The development of CRISPR gene editing by scientists including Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier revolutionized molecular biology by making gene editing faster, cheaper, and more precise.

Today, CRISPR-based therapies are already being tested—and in some cases approved—for diseases such as Sickle Cell Disease.

While these treatments edit genes in individual patients, not embryos, they demonstrate that the underlying technology is now real.

What Silver Got Right — and What Remains Uncertain

Looking back, Remaking Eden correctly anticipated several key developments:

Accurate predictions:

  • Reproductive technologies would merge with genetics

  • Genetic screening of embryos would become common

  • Gene editing technologies would eventually emerge

Predictions still uncertain:

  • widespread genetic enhancement

  • the emergence of genetically stratified societies.

The reason may be that ethical and political constraints have proven stronger than many futurists expected. Technological capability alone does not determine what societies are willing to do.

The Debate Has Only Begun

The arrival of powerful tools like CRISPR means that the questions raised in Remaking Eden are no longer purely speculative.

Humanity now faces real decisions about whether—and how—to alter its own genetic future.

As the historian Walter Isaacson notes in The Code Breaker, the technology to edit genes may advance rapidly, but the ethical debate about its use will likely unfold over generations.

The ultimate question remains the same as when Silver wrote his book nearly thirty years ago:

If we gain the power to redesign human biology, should we use it?

ChatGPT, based on a prompt by Claus D. Volko

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