The Ferguson Peak
Most discussions of intelligence assume a simple relationship: the smarter a person is, the more likely they are to be recognized. High intelligence leads to educational success, professional achievement, and eventually historical visibility. On average, this is true. Yet averages can conceal important structural effects. The assumption behind most systems of talent identification is that recognition increases with ability. Schools select promising students. Universities select promising applicants. Employers select promising candidates. Research institutions select promising researchers. Every stage depends on the idea that exceptional ability will eventually become visible and therefore discoverable. But what if recognition does not increase indefinitely with intelligence? What if recognition rises with ability only up to a certain point and then becomes increasingly dependent on other factors? I call this possibility the Ferguson Peak , naming it after Michael W. Ferguson, ...